A Few Thoughts on Complexity

When we think about the ongoing debate between creationists and evolutionists, at some point the question of complexity comes up. The universe as we know it is complex and that points to a creator we would say. Not so, they retort, something can be complex and not have a designer or creator. Really? I could make a general statement that everything is complex, but it doesn't tell the whole story. Some things are more complex than others. Here are some considerations we should take into account. What makes something complex? Kind of a difficult question, but we can identify a few characteristics. First, let's talk:

Parts:
The number of parts is a factor, but that is only one aspect of it. An hourglass has lots of parts (grains of sand) but it is not really very complex. A pocket watch, however, is another matter. It contains lots of parts which are distinct from each other in material, size, shape and internal complexity. By this I am referring to the kinds of operations which are necessary to make the part fulfill its purpose. Some are made of flat metal with a couple of holes punched in them. Others are cast, drilled to precise measurements, have other parts, like bearings pressed into them, are heat treated, ground, tapped, grooved or knurled. They in and of themselves are complicated and made to exacting standards. We could also make a case for uniqueness. That is, does the part only exist in this environment, or is it widely available. Honorable mention would go the amount of time and energy required to bring all the different raw materials together for manufacture.

More than Parts:

But one thing is missing from the above argument. That would be the holistic nature of the mechanism. Is a watch more than the sum of its parts? Yes, definitely. What is it that makes the mechanism more? The fact that force and procedure must be applied to the parts in order to make them work. I alluded to this when I mentioned internal complexity. Parts alone do not make a watch. One can assemble all the necessary pieces, put them in a bag and leave them for a million years and they will never tell time no matter how much the bag is shaken, stirred or flipped. More is needed.

Force needs to be applied. Having the parts in close proximity to each other is nice, but someone, or some thing, (as in a robotic arm) must grasp the parts and put them in place. Fasteners will be needed to hold the parts together. If the fastener is a screw, it must be positioned and tightened in a specific way. Bearings are another matter. Watch makers often use jewels as bearings because of their resistance to wear. The force required for them must be very specific. If they fit too tight or too loose the watch will not achieve its full potential. It may wear out too fast, or not keep good time. If it is a mechanical watch, the spring mechanism must be placed in such a way that it will have some tension on it. Again, force must be specifically applied. Just the application of force is not good enough. Parts must be assembled according to certain:

Procedures. A watch cannot be put together in a haphazard manner. Since each part is interdependent they need to be assembled in a specific order. Fit between the various gears, bearings and drive mechanism is critical. Tolerances must be attended to. Often, the fit between parts is adjusted before tightening.

The fact that force is judiciously applied and certain procedures are adhered to means intelligence. Intelligence is not simply implied. It is a necessary condition. Some mind must consider the parts and their relationship with each other. That same mind must direct their energy in the best way to assemble the mechanism. Under no other condition will a watch work. Ever.

Now let's consider a cell in light of the same questions.

While a watch may contain hundreds of parts, a cell contains thousands of them. Some are chemicals, others are miniature structures. A few are unique to the cell and found nowhere else on earth. All are microscopic in size. The nucleus contains the blueprint (DNA), written in chemical code for all cellular operations, and also gives the cell the ability to reproduce itself with great accuracy. Other devices read DNA and perform its instructions. Cells contain their own metabolic power supply (mitochondria) and internal highway system (endoplasmic reticulum) These parts are enveloped in a semi-permeable skin, which is an engineering marvel in and of itself.

All in all, a cell is several orders of complexity higher than any watch. It is holistic too. It has already been 'wound' up. It is alive.

And that's a trick no watch maker has ever been able to pull off.


The above photo was copied from the Wikipedia article titled: "Watchmaker Analogy".
Here is the link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watchmaker_analogy.
Also: Interested in what it might take to build a watch? Try this link: http://web.ticino.com/dcorson/watch/

Episode 9: Candidate of the Apocalypse

Vance took a last puff of his cigarette and squashed it out. It was almost time. He had parked his car up here more than an hour before, half a block away from the Briar Street Theater. His mission was simple, to disrupt a political rally by any means possible. The candidate was a relative unknown, but he was supported by the Tea Party and that was enough for him, or, for his bosses anyway.

Vance's contact was nothing more than a voice, but he sure paid well. The call had come from a blocked phone a week before. If he was successful, and he usually was, a significant deposit would be made into one of his accounts. Cracking his knuckles and neck, he secretly hoped to get into a fight. But something wasn't quite right. He had been monitoring the sidewalk traffic for almost an hour and had seen no one approach the theater. Checking his watch again he saw it was only 15 minutes before the meeting was to begin. "These guys sure are running late tonight", he thought. Just then his phone rang....

Charles quickly ascended the podium. He stood smiling and nodding to acknowledge the crowd. With a raise of his hand the cheering stopped.

"First of all I would like to thank a few of you who somehow were able to book us at this beautiful edifice! Let's have a cheer for the Bank of America Theater!" As the crowd roared Charles nodded to a few people against the back wall who were smiling broadly.

"....What do you mean I've got the wrong place! This is the address they sent me!"

The voice on the phone rose in pitch and volume for a few moments, then calmed. Vance listened intently as the muscles in his neck tensed.

"Yes sir, I'll try and do better next time."

Vance got out of the car and paced back and forth on the sidewalk. Now what? He had fallen into disfavor with his bosses. Someone must have known what he was up to and led him on a wild goose chase. He'd been had. That realization worked its way through his mind and enraged him. "All right, two can play at that game. I know a few people too!" His phone came up to his ear and in a moment he was speaking in hushed tones to a man on the other end....

Charles held up the front page of yesterday's newspaper to display the headline.

"Tonight we will be talking about politics and the economy. First I want to explode a myth to you. A lot of times we see politicians in the news saying something like, 'We're going to put people back to work!' Or some variation of that. It doesn't matter what political party they represent. They're lying! The fact of the matter is this-governments do not and cannot create jobs. People do. We can see from a couple of thousand years of history that the powers of government have tried all kinds of different things to affect, or control the marketplace. And do you know how many times they have succeeded? Zero! An obvious lesson for us, isn't it? The best thing any government can do to promote economic growth is simply to get out of the way."

From his vantage point against the wall, his campaign manager had an excellent view of the crowd. They were fully engaged with Charles as he spoke. They smiled at his witticisms, nodded as he made each point and applauded regularly. The hard work their campaign had put in for the last year was showing. From the very beginning Charles had insisted on recording every talk he made. Not out of conceit, which was absent from his persona, but to help him get better. Every answer, along with his body language and facial expressions were examined in detail. Charles had honed his skills like a craftsman. The truth was that he already had many of the best qualities in place. He was friendly, personable, self-effacing and intelligent. He had a way of speaking to the issues softly but powerfully and could inspire confidence in just about any audience.

But tonight was something special.

His speech drew a standing ovation and Charles easily moved into the question and answer portion of the evening. Unlike most candidates at so called town hall meetings, none of the questions were screened. Charles stayed on the platform for this while some volunteers worked their way through the audience. Each one carried a portable camera so the questioner's face could be broadcast on the big screen up front. His answers were straight from the shoulder with no notes. His grasp of the issues, though considerable, was stretched to the limit. Questions covered every major and minor issue. Charles was able to keep upbeat and positive through it all.

Before long the meeting wound to a close. Most people filed out, but some stayed, hanging around in small groups with the largest around Charles. Like every meeting, (time permitting, of course) he would not leave until he had talked personally with everyone. It was past eleven o'clock when they finally shut the lights in the auditorium down. Charles had been there for over five hours and the fatigue was showing on his face. All that was left was to sign a few papers. His campaign manager would perform this task. Charles left first.

A few minutes later his manager came out of the theater, trotted across West Monroe and turned left. Their car was just up the street. As he walked his mind was thinking about the next day's schedule. They would start early at Good Day Chicago. That meant very little sleep tonight. But there would be an opportunity to catch a few winks on the flight back tomorrow afternoon. Just then his thoughts were interrupted. Something was going on up ahead. Some kind of struggle. He paused for a moment, not out of fear, but curiosity. Then he shouted at the top of his lungs and took off running. Some thugs were attacking Charles!

"Hey!" he shouted, "Leave that guy alone!" One of the masked men turned his head toward the manager and pointed a pistol in his direction. Seeing the gun he dove to the side, just in time to see the muzzle flash out the corner of his eye. He heard the whine of the bullet as it passed through the space where he was a moment ago. There was no fear at the moment. That would come later. He rolled to his feet and saw that Charles was being hauled into a van. The door slammed shut and tires squealed as it took off. The manager ran out into the street unable to do anything except watch as the van disappeared into the night.

"Help! Help!" He cried into the air with tears streaming down his face.

Episode 8: Candidate of the Apocalypse Part 2

"Ahhhhh!" The menacing faces disappeared and Charles found himself sitting up in bed. It had been a dream. He shook his head to clear it and discovered there was indeed a hand on his shoulder. His campaign manager had risen earlier from the other bed, and hearing his distress moved to wake him. A few moments were necessary for Charles to re-orient himself. What day was it? March 20th, 2011. Where was he? Redding, California. Room 225 in the downtown Holiday Inn. Looking at the clock he saw it was 5:55 AM. In two hours he was to speak at a breakfast get-together with the Redding Merchants Association. Afterward they would be chauffeured into the country for a series of seminars and question/answer sessions for the rest of the day.

"The dream again?"

Charles nodded. For the last few weeks he had been plagued with them.

"Man! That was intense!" Charles got up and paced around while he related a few details from the dream. Then he poured a cup of coffee and they ran over his schedule. It was a busy one. He was going to speak some five times that day-on different subjects. For each talk a folder had been prepared with the most up-to-date and pertinent information. Normally Charles preferred a more extemporaneous approach. His outlines were often just key words on a sheet of paper. But this was a conference and he wanted to have the documentation at his fingertips.

A few minutes later, he nodded. "This is very impressive! We're going to knock-em dead today." With that he rose to shower and get ready.

His manager nodded and shifted toward the computer. He had been working on their web site. It was puzzling. For some time now his goal was to use every internet tool possible to spread their message and promote Charles as a viable alternative to normal party politics. Facebook, Twitter, blogs, emails and the rest were his domain. He found that their 'no money' policy was a good hook, but now more was needed to keep interest in the cause. His web site featured a literal cornucopia of information and resources. There was a set of links to the best and most conservative sites. Both he and Charles wrote weekly articles about the role of government and law to a free society; and the consequences when these roles were exceeded. Both their blogs were updated daily with running commentary about the issues at hand. He recorded every talk Charles made and excerpts were posted on a regular basis. They had multiple areas for their followers to comment. One, called 'My Take', allowed individuals to offer their own solutions to everything from health care to tax reform. Needless to say, this was a popular and lively forum. The best of these ideas were featured prominently on the site. In fact, many of them were quite good. He had also set up the network to be as decentralized as possible. The sister and mirror sites were maintained and updated by volunteers, who had a measure of control over them. A bit of latitude was allowed to keep local groups focused and interested. It had taken quite a while for him to put all this together, and the rewards were beginning to show. Membership was increasing rapidly. Charles had garnered the attention of the Tea Party and became a speaker at their events. Everything was in place for the big push which would begin later this year. All in all he was confident of their chances. What was needed now was some nudge, a seminal event for Charles' candidacy to explode on the national stage. Were that to happen he would be unstoppable.

Yet he had to face a feeling that something wasn't quite right. This mood was unrelated to Charles' leadership or his abilities. He was a great boss. No. It was something external and cast a pall over every victory, every achievement.

When the threats began he supposed they were from some disenchanted individual or group. It was soon apparent they were not. And when he used his (considerable) programming skills to find the culprits, he found nothing but dead ends. The perpetrators, whoever they be, were pretty slick. But the demands of the campaign left no time to concentrate on some (hopefully) empty threats. However, they continued, becoming more and more specific as well as more violent. Soon they could no longer be ignored. He sought advice from law enforcement officers who specialized in cyber-crime, to no avail. Now he was quietly asking for plainclothes officers and off-duty policemen to attend their meetings and keep and eye out for anything suspicious.

As campaign manager he was rarely on center stage but always near it. That fact allowed him to be in a unique position. He could watch the audience and read their faces. While most of the people in the crowds were fully engaged, smiling and upbeat; a few started appearing with scowls and frowns. When he attempted to corner these individuals and find out what their concerns were he was met with stone faced silence. They were obviously being watched. But by whom? He could not tell. It was quite normal for politicians to keep tabs on their opponents; but this behavior had a sinister feel. In the past few days the number of threats had increased considerably. His gut was warning him that something bad was going down in just two weeks. All the threats pointed to Chicago.

But he had a few tricks up his sleeve, too.

A Quick Thought on Creation

The watchmaker argument is still a good one. I was reading a skeptic blog some time back and it seems that someone asked a RSG (really smart guy - ie, a scientist) about it. He replied (and I'm paraphrasing) that it didn't seem like much to compare a watch to the universe. My reaction was, "of course!" It is kind of trivial to do so. I find it quite sad that an otherwise brilliant man can look at a watch and know it had a designer and then that same guy can turn around, look at the universe which is, what, a trillion times more complex, and say it had none.

Episode 8: Candidate of the Apocalypse Part 1

"The Dream"

Flashback: January 2013

It was a beautiful, crisp morning. The sun was just peeking over the trees that lined Pennsylvania Ave and a slight breeze stirred the few remaining leaves on the ground.

"And now without further adieu, it is my pleasure to introduce to you, The President of the United States!"

The crowd rose to their feet, clapping and cheering wildly. Many of them were waiving flags at the same time. On the Capitol steps the scene was equally jubilant. Smiles were everywhere. Charles was beaming as he stepped up to the podium. But he didn't stop behind it as he was instructed by the Secret Service. Rather, he stepped beside the podium and acknowledged the adulation of the crowd. The roar got even louder as he stood and raised his hand in a gesture of victory. A full four minutes later he waved for the last time and moved behind the podium. It took a few moments for the crowd to fall silent while Charles shuffled the sheaf of papers which were his speech. He cracked his neck and cleared his throat before he began.

"Members of the Senate and House of Representatives, and citizens of the United States - and honored guests - welcome! The tide has turned! (cheers) This past November you spoke loud and clear. You said no to a particular ideology and yes to another. This is what you said 'no' to. Big government! Ineffective solutions! Higher taxation! Unending regulation! The results of that ideology you know very well. Our nation has experienced the lowest levels of growth and the highest sustained levels of unemployment in it's history. And we are drowning in debt. The high place we enjoyed among the nations of the world has been threatened. Needless to say, this presents quite a challenge. Perhaps the greatest one we have ever faced. But I have faith in the resourcefulness of the American people. After all, weren't we the ones who defeated the best navy in the world at a time when our Navy was non-existent? Weren't we the ones who fought a civil war and emerged from it even stronger than before? Weren't we the first to fly? Haven't we sent a dozen of our number to the moon? By every measure our country has been and continues to be greatest nation in the history of the world.

So what makes us to special? To former administrations the answer to that question would be government. They could not be more wrong. We are great because we place you above government. You are in fact more important. If I may quote from our foundational document, the Declaration of Independence, "We hold these truths to be self evident, that all men are created equal. That they are endowed by their Creator, and by Creator I mean Almighty G...."

But he could not finish. Something had happened. A gust of wind, much stronger than the others ruffled the papers in his hand and stung his eyes. Startled, Charles wiped away the tears and composed himself to continue his speech, but no words came. His mind was disconnected from his body. He looked down, hoping to regain his bearings from his notes, only to see them turn to ash and crumble in his hands. The dried and broken pieces were swept away in the rushing breeze. Empty palms stared back at him for a few moments while he strained to make sense of it all. At long last he looked up to apologize to the waiting crowd but they had - vanished! The street which moments ago was filled with people was now deserted and littered with blowing debris. There were no cars within his seeing. The howling wind swirled around with rising ferocity. A shadow fell before his eyes and he looked up to see the bright sun disappear behind grey forbidding clouds. But the clouds were not the only things in the air. Birds, black crows were flying everywhere. But no. They were not birds. They were helicopters circling around. Ropes were cast from them and men in black slid down to land in front, beside and behind him. Something inside Charles' mind was yelling for him to run but no movement came. He was completely paralyzed and helpless. His podium dissolved into dust before his impassive eyes and blew away. By now the black-suited, faceless men had surrounded him. Still he did not - no - could not move anything except his head. Their gloved hands were reaching out for him. He was going to be taken away, but where? Why was his happening? He knew not. Suddenly one of his attackers grabbed his shoulder like a vice. His paralysis left him and the next instant Charles was fighting for his life....

Episode 7: Candidate of the Apocalypse

Flashback: Late October 2010

Charles was in Seattle finishing up a question from the audience, "....and you know what is said, when taxes approach one hundred percent they should start to level off." The audience responded with laughter. "But this is part of the question that we asked at the beginning, are we a nation of laws? Or not? Every problem facing us is a direct result of our representatives purposefully ignoring the very laws they have sworn to protect. I've got enough time for one more question - let's see. You." He was pointing toward a woman to his left. "What's the big deal with out debt?" I mean, I've heard people say that deficits don't matter. Can't we just forgive it?"

"Good question. Why can't we just forgive our debt? Well, the reason is that this is money we owe to people, or countries. A large part of our debt is obligations to retired individuals through Social Security, Medicare and other types of programs. Another part of our debt is money owed to other countries. Did you know we owe close to a trillion to China? Plus interest, of course. Besides all that is the cost of running the government. All those people who go in to work every day just like you and me. Now, it is on a much larger scale of course, but it is not unlike you having to pay the bills for your household every day, week and month. The difference is the government has a few tricks which are not available to us normal citizens. For example, they can vote to raise their own debt limit. (Wouldn't you guys like to do that!) or raise taxes, or simply print more money. We all know there's a down side to each of these too."

"And now I would like to introduce the team that made all this possible." He proceeded to call the different people up to the platform from memory. In a short time some twenty five beaming faces were standing around him. "These guys put in a lot of time and effort to make this a success. It's amazing what can be accomplished when people voluntarily agree to work together. I would love to stay longer, but I am scheduled to appear on channel 12 WKQD as part of their noon show. Oh, I almost forgot! We are having lunch at Bill's Chop House after the show. If any of you can join us, come on by!" The audience stood and applauded as he was ushered out of the arena.

Charles was all smiles as a entered the station just a few minutes before air time. He was immediately accosted by the producer, who, after a brief introduction proceeded to give instructions about being on TV. "Talk quickly and precisely, look at the person whom you are addressing. Keep gestures to a minimum. Pretend the camera isn't there. Above, all - no dead air." The man was talking nonstop. As he spoke he outfitted Charles with a mike, checked it and gave the make-up artist a chance to do a few touch ups. Charles was relaxed and attentive, nodding after each instruction. He asked no questions. While these preparations were being made the three of them were slowly moving down the hall to the stage door. Passing through the door they could see part of the brightly lit stage. A few moments wait were necessary for the hostess to finish the current segment and go to commercial. In one and a half minutes they would be live. During all this Charles' campaign manager had been silently following along, forgotten. He had been told, and prepared his candidate for the subject of today's on air discussion, government and job creation. Their opponent was an economist, Dr George Carlson. The producer nodded and stepped on stage. He introduced Charles to his host, Connie Chisholm. She offered her hand, "Honey, just call me Connie." Then she turned and introduced him to the other guest. But there must have been some mistake, unless George was a woman. There was no time to adjust. Charles was going into this interview completely blind.

The hostess had dreamed this up as a way to make Charles look like a fool. (Even though she would later deny it.) The actual topic of the segment was religion and prejudice. Across from Charles sat a woman who was invited to speak fist. She proceed to give a rather lengthy, (for television) and possibly rehearsed speech about how people in her religion were discriminated against and the American people were still prejudiced toward them. She finished her speech. Connie smiled broadly and turned to Charles. "And what do you have to say about this?" She asked sweetly.

His campaign manager held his breath.

Charles appeared unperturbed. He leaned forward and, in a soft voice said, "Would you mind if I asked a couple of question?" The woman shook her head. "I see you are wearing a head scarf. Is this required, or do you wear the scarf voluntarily?"

"Yes, it is required, but I want to wear it as well."

"And are you married?"

"Yes"

"Is your husband here today"

"No, he is traveling right now."

"And did he take his other wives with him for his trip?"

She seemed taken aback by this question.

"No, er yes, I am his only wife."

"Do you have a relative, who is with you here at the station?"

"No."

"And have you ever had to appear in court in your home country?"

"No, never."

"Thank you for your answers. The reason I am asking this is because the religion you claim to represent is one of the most repressive on earth, especially toward women. I am somewhat surprised a person of your gender is defending it. You are right about the scarf. But your religion also allows men to have up to five wives at a time. Has your husband ever hit you or threatened you in any way?"

The woman was now on the defense.

"No, he has not."

"Yet the book you call scripture does allow men to strike their wives."

Charles continued. "It is also a requirement that no woman to appear in public unescorted. To go out alone can invite scandal or arrest, as the reporter in your country discovered a few months back when she was in a Starbucks talking to a male colleague. I pity her when she appeared in court, and I'm glad you have never experienced that. And you know why, don't you?"

She said nothing.

"That's because in your court system it takes the testimony of two women to equal that of a single man. This causes no end of problems when women are attacked and there are no other witnesses."

"Now let me ask you a couple of questions about the United States. Do we require a woman to wear a particular garb in public?"

Her head barely moved.

"That's right. Do we require any citizen to express faith in a particular religion? I'll answer that for you, of course not. Yet in your home country if a person, say, decided to become a Christian they would be arrested and perhaps killed. In our country can a man have more than one wife? No. And in our court system does a woman's testimony have any less credibility than a man's? Also, no. You have come here to express that Americans are prejudiced, but that is not so. We may have a lack of knowledge about your belief system, but is that not because it deliberately obfuscates itself? My dear, I pity you."

"I'm afraid we must now break for a commercial." Connie broke in.

Of course the interview was over. The hostess' face barely concealed her rage as she quickly ushered them off stage. Charles' campaign manager was shaking his head in wonder at what he had just seen. How did he know? Who prepped him for this?

A half hour later they were at Bill's lunching with a happy crowd. A number of them had seen the show. Charles was at his best, eating on his feet and moving from table to table as he engaged in conversation with his new friends. He had just picked up a piece of cake for desert when a man signaled to him by waving his phone. "Hey, take a look!". Charles looked intently. There, on a major video site, was his interview. It was already on the web.

The video became an instant hit, particularly among conservatives. The membership of Charles' site almost doubled.

In Washington the political operative noticed the video and visited his site. He gasped at how many new followers were registered and was even more impressed at the site traffic. He picked up the phone and dialed his superior, who angrily chewed him out. Now the operative knew what to do.

And that's when the threats started.

Playing Dice with the Universe

Recently, I read an article on Skeptico that presented an interesting example using dice. Skeptico says:

"Suppose someone is rolling a set of two dice. He rolls a double six- something with a one in 36 chance of happening. Which is more likely, that the person rolled a set of regular dice and just got lucky, or that he rolled a special set where both dice have just sixes on all faces? (Let's assume you can't see any but the sides that are on top.) You might think that since a regular set would produce a double six on only one out of 36 attempts, he is more likely to have rolled the trick dice with just sixes. But after a moment's thought you would probably realize that was wrong. With just one roll of the dice, you would have no way of knowing...."

He concludes this:

"No matter how many dice he rolled at once, or how high the apparent odds against it happening by chance you wouldn't know he was cheating by just looking at the results of one roll."

While I am not exactly sure of his point, Skeptico seems to be saying we cannot tell by just looking at this universe whether it was the result of lucky occurences or if it was manipulated to be the way it is. His conclusion is there's no way we can tell if our universe is the result of the action of a Higher Power.

Really?

I could take the same information and come to a different conclusion. Let me give my take on it. Your friend rolls two dice, (you don't see the roll, ok?) comes up to you and says, "Hey, I rolled two sixes!" To which you think, "Big deal." The odds, 1 in 36 are well within probability. But what if he rolled 5 dice and they were all sixes? The odds for that are much lower, (1 in 7776) and therefore more impressive. Anyone who has played Yahtzee knows the difficulty of rolling all sixes. What if your friend says he opened a bag of ten dice, dumped them on the table and they came up sixes. The odds now become 1 in 60,466,176. Would you believe him? Or secretly harbor a thought that he had skewed them in some way. Maybe he's (very) lucky. (Does he have any lottery numbers in mind?) With a bag of 25 dice the odds become 1 in 28,430,288,029,929,700,000. In case you didn't know, that is a very small probability. For them to show all sixes in a single roll would be, for all practical purposes, impossible.

The point I am trying to make here is that one part of his analogy is right. You would not be able to tell, from a single roll if the dice was manipulated or not. But you could be suspicious. As the number of dice increases so does the possiblity that something else is happening and an alternative explanation is needed.

We should consider that the universe is a lot more complicated than a pair of dice. It is more complicated than 10 or even 25 dice. In light of that knowledge the possible causes for our present reality narrow considerably. Either one has to believe that the universe somehow, someway, came into being in spite of impossibly small odds, or one must cling to a theory that cannot be proved (as in multiple universes) and therefore borders on religion, (Something believed with no cororobating evidence.) or (gasp) that something, or Someone manipulated it to be that way. A Creator, perhaps?

Link here: http://skeptico.blogs.com/skeptico/2010/04/fine-tuning-arguments.html.

Must Christianity be Accepted Without any Evidence?

I recently read an article from Skeptico titled "Atheism is Not a Religion". In this article there are a few statements I would like to comment on. As the article begins the author says this: "Religion must include something you have to accept on faith - that is, without evidence commensurate with the extraordinary nature of the belief." About the world religions (Christianity, Judaism, Islam, Buddhism, Scientoloty...etc.) he says: "They are not based on fact or on any reasonable evidence commensurate with the claims they make." Further, when referring to evidence he states that the extraordinary claims of a particular religion should be reinforced with extraordinary evidence.

While I would agree that most religions are based on some sort of superstition or false belief, I would disagree that Christianity is without evidential merit. We all know that the premiere event for its foundation is the resurrection of Christ. Skeptico says this: "Of course, the resurrection of Christ, if it had actually happened, would be pretty good evidence for Christianity." However, he denies that there is any good evidence for the resurrection.

Really?

Let's illustrate the situation this way. Suppose your best friend comes up and excitedly tells you he has seen an extraordinary event. A miracle. "I saw it with my own eyes!" he says. What do you do? You can believe him, or not. The choice is yours. Soon after, another friend claims to have seen the exact same thing. Now what? You can still believe him (them) or not. What about three friends? Or four? At what point does the testimony of these people sway you? Of course you didn't see the miraculous event. You can steadfastly refuse to believe if you so desire. "I need real proof?" you say. What if this miracle was seen by dozens or even hundreds of people? Where is the threshold for belief? Is the testimony of multiple reliable witnesses good enough?

Let's expand this a little bit. Suppose all the people you know who witnessed this miracle became different in some way. We all know that personalities can change for the worse from (among other things) drugs and alcohol. But these lives are changed for the better. They are more honest than before, more happy, personable and caring. The change, they all say happened as a result of the miracle.

This is what we see with Christianity. People and not a few of them claim to have seen a living man who was publically executed and buried just a few days before. They were not superstitious pagans: they were Jews, adherents of Judaism. A few were highly educated. One notable disciple (Thomas) thought the others were delusional. "Except I shall see in his hands the print of the nails, and put my hand into his side, I will not believe." A week later his concerns were met when he saw Jesus for himself. The various sightings occurred over a period of 40 days. Rarely did they happen to individuals. The largest appearance was to some 500 people.

What is the difference between my illustration and what happened two thousand years ago? Time. The questions we ask today are the same for both groups. Are they primary witnesses, like your friend or secondary ones. Are the various testimonies of the witnesses reliably consistent? What is the character of the witnesses? Is their testimony trustworthy?

It should be known that what I am going to give in condensed form has much scholarly support. Whole volumes have been written about these matters.

Let's take a look at Jesus' biographers. Matthew writes as a primary witness. His account is matter of fact and not laced with sensationalistic language. He gospel was almost certainly written before the fall of Jerusalem in 70 AD and well within his lifetime. Also there are no competing writers for his Gospel. Every early tradition points to his authorship. Mark is a little different. He is named as a follower of Jesus, but not one of the Twelve. He may not have been a primary witness to all the events about which he writes. But we know from tradition that he was a companion of Peter. Peter was the most outspoken and well-known of Jesus' disciples. Essentially the Gospel that bears Mark's name is that of Peter. His Gospel is dated before 60 AD. John also writes as a primary witness. He was the longest lived of all the disciples and may have written his Gospel after 70 AD, but still within his lifetime. He died around 97-99 AD.

What about Luke? He was not Jewish and expressly states that he was not a primary witness. He was, however a reporter. His mission was to located the primary sources, find out what they had to say, and record that information. Luke's Gospel includes some episodes which are not in the others but can be traced back to primary sources. Luke also wrote the book of Acts as a continuation of his Gospel. Both of his books were written before 60 AD. We should note that Luke was an extremely accurate writer. His books have held up to the most careful scrutiny by archaeologists and historians.

What about the character of the witnesses? Does their testimony hold up? Actually - yes. Peter was the first to publically preach about the resurrection. He appeals to the crowd's knowledge of the events. (....you yourselves know....) A few days later he was on trial against a hostile jury and made the same appeal. (....this Jesus whom you crucified and God raised from the dead....) Peter's trial was less than two months after Jesus' crucifixion and only a few minutes walk from the tomb. It would have been pretty easy to refute his declaration. The suprising thing is that the prosecution could offer no evidence to the contrary. No one stood up and said. "Hey! You're wrong! This man is still dead!" In fact, no one in Jesus' time was able to refute the evidence. Instead they resorted to bribery or threats.

Clearly the evidence above does not square very well with that of the scientific kind. But what do you want? A neon sign in the heavens? If you are looking for some kind of goo you can take to a lab and use to reanimate dead matter - it simply does not exist and you will forever be disappointed. But if you can believe the testimony of reliable people who personally witnessed these events there is hope. The question I would like to ask: Is the evidence presented sufficient to believe they are telling the truth? You will have to answer for yourself. My answer is yes.

It's time to look more closely at the Gospel record.

(Link to Skeptico article: http://skeptico.blogs.com/skeptico/2009/06/atheism-is-not-a-religion.html )

Episode 6: Candidate of the Apocalypse

Flashback: September 2010

Charles' campaign manager was cautiously optimistic. While things were going pretty well so far-the numbers told him they were still way behind. There was simply no way that Charles could speak to enough people face to face and pull it off. But all was not lost. He did have a couple of ideas about using social networks and other means to spread the word. This helped a lot. There must be some (future) point of critical mass when everything they were working toward must explode or else simply fade away. The problem was he didn't know when, or if, this point could be reached. But they must go on. At every meeting Charles gave him some time to talk about the importance of networking and how this could become something which had never happend before in history, an online campaign made up entirely of like-minded people whose reach could be more pervasive than either, or both parties together. He was driven to see if this could be accomplished and was constantly busy looking for the best and most efficient ways to communicate between them and their supporters.

It was the middle of the afternoon and Charles was in a radio interview. He had already spoken to two groups this morning and would have another before flying back late tonight.

The radio host asked, "And what do you say when people ask about your qualifications?"
"Well, I am over the age of 35. I am a natural born citizen and have lived here continuously for over 14 years. So I do meet the minimum requirements to run. But what people usually mean by this kind of questions is; do you have the right educational credentials, or do you have some kind of experience in government. I do have a University degree. Not from Yale or Harvard like some of our Presidents have. On the other hand, aren't these the very ones who have put us in the mess we're in? OK, so having an education at the right school isn't enough. Secondly, I owned a business for some 15 years. I was good at it. I negotiated prices, delivery schedules and all kinds of other things in the course of running that company. I had to know when to delegate and when the decision fell on me. Every decision was made with care because they affected my people and their jobs. How is this different from negotiating for a particular bill, or some kind of trade agreement? It's only a matter of scale. Also: One great advantage the President has is access to the best and brightest in the country. They can provide expertise that he may lack. That's what the cabinet and advisors are for. I plan on tapping into that knowledge pool when it comes to makinig decisions." Last of all, we hear a lot of people saying that we need to send some kind of message to Washington. Wouldn't electing someone like me be the biggest message of all?"

"And that's why you are running what is truly a grassroots campaign."

"Exactly. I've set things up so that I must be invited to come and speak. If my message does not resonate with them, then the offers will simply go away."

"And on that note, how many speaking engagements do you have right now?"

"More than I can handle. As a matter of fact we've had to up our minimum crowd request from fifty people to a hundred. And we still have more calls every single day."

Outside the studio Charles found several reporters assembled and waiting. This was a first and he politely held another question and answer session. Soon he felt his campaign manager pulling on his sleeve. They were going to be late. Time to go.

The next place happend to be at a gym. Charles found himself at the center of a friendly and supportive crowd. He wound up exercising between questions and comments. Some were political but a lot them were about his workout routine. His personality really meshed with them. Toward the end one guy said, "You know at some gyms they have a time when you can some in and workout naked!" "I would never workout naked," Charles replied with a twinkle in his eye, "For two reasons. First it's too distracting. Second, I don't want to draw a crowd." Everyone laughed and Charles had to move on.

However, someone in the crowd recorded that little quip and in a few days it became a minor YouTube hit. Rather than hurting Charles' campaign there was an upswing in numbers. His manager just shook his head. "Who is this guy?" he thought.

That very afternoon Charles received an invitation to appear on a local morning talk show. The topic of discussion they said would be the economy and how to address it. Charles agreed.

But it was a trick.

Episode 5: Candidate of the Apocalypse

A few questions for our candidate.

Year: 2036 November

It took a few days to take down and clean up after the Festival. But the next time school met the teacher continued his story.

Flashback: August 2010

Charles was having a meeting in Spokane, Washington at a Holiday Inn. The room was full with people standing around the walls. He was dressed well but casually in a dark blue turtle-neck and jeans. He finished his introductory remarks then grabbed the mike and stepped into the crowd to take questions. The first came from an older man sitting near the back.

"Are you going to take away my Social Security?"

"Well! I can see you're not going to allow me any warm up questions!" (laughter)
Charles' voice grew soft. "I do not intend to take anybody's Social Security away. But we would be foolish to admit that there are no problems with it as it stands right now. If we take a look at the history of the program we would see that it has never lived up to the promises made about it. Ever. Today most people will not get the money out of the system they've put in. Yet at the same time the financial demands made on our country are increasing. This system could very well bankrupt the United States unless something is done soon."

"But what can be done?" A voice asked.

"I guess that's the million dollar question. Or, since we're talking about the government - the trillion dollar question. If the system is going to remain solvent three things must happen. If only one or two are done it will not work.

First, there must be an overhaul of the current tax code. We must exchange the IRS for something better. (cheers) We have the second highest corporate tax system in the world. It is unfair and stifling to business and people. Now, I really do not care a lot about which tax system we enact, that would be something to talk to your representatives about. Many have proposed some kind of flat tax. I'm personally in favor of what the call the Fair Tax. It doesn't quite matter too much as long as the rates are loooow. He drew out the last work to the smiles of the audience.

That is a moot point if the second requirement does not happen. We're talking about spending. Let me give an example for you. If took the previous administration some 6 years to increase spending by a trillion dollars. The present administration's first act was to increase spending by some 800 Billion! By now they have spend over a trillion and a half. (That's new spending, mind you.) As a nation we are in more debt in terms of dollar amount and as a percentage of our gross national product than at any time in our history, even World War II.

Now, I believe that if progress is made on the first two they will go a long way toward solving the problems we are in and help Social Security. We are also in need of taking a sober practial look at that program and make changes. And do you know what? Several good ideas have been put forward which merit consideration. I've got a couple of web sites here on the screen for you to check out.

What I am not going to do is blow smoke at you, like some are doing or ignore the problem like most are doing. It will be addressed."

"Can you tell us something about your life sir?"

"Certainly. I was born and raised in far off Virginia and pursued my higher education at the College of William and Mary. I started grad school at the University of Virginia but never finished. The reason for that was a death in the family, a very close uncle of mine. He had recently started a delivery company with one truck and three customers. I dropped out of school to take over the company. Sixteen years later we had 15 trucks; I had added about a truck a year and by then the company was a medium-sized regional distributor with over a hundred clients. At that point I sold the company and basically, retired. By the way, the company existed for another eight years before it was absorbed into another, larger company.

After I retired I moved to the Midwest and spend the first ten years or so travelling around this great nation of ours. I've never been much for world travel, not that we didn't do a bit of that too. About 5 years ago I started another company selling truck accessories online. I guess I can't really get around my love for trucks! Two years ago I became part owner of a local gym."

"What do you think is the most important quality in a candidate?"

"First and formost is character. I would place that even higher than some sort of educational requirement. We've all seen Presidents that were supposed to be very smart and highly educated and yet they didn't do so well. Others, less educated did more. But every President has had situations in which he had a choice between doing the politically expedient thing or the right thing."

Afterward, Charles stayed to meet people, shake hand and talk. One guy came up and said, "I run a gym too, do you have time for a quick workout?" He did have time and agreed. It was a refreshing change since his schedule had been so tight recently. Before long he had to start refusing offers, or work out several times a day.

At about the same time a politcal operative in Washington discovered his web site and scanned the contents. He was immediately dismissed as a hack, but someone to watch.

Flashforward: 2036

The class was so engrossed in listening it took a few moments to acknowledge the ringing bell. The days were getting shorter and colder now. The students filed out quickly, shouting and talking to each other as they went while the teacher stood, trembling at the front of the class. A moment later the coughing began.

Skeptic's Arguments Leave Something to be Desired

Some years ago a Reverend by the name of Wilson Paley came up with an argument for God that went this way. He wrote:

"In crossing a heath, suppose I pitched my foot against a stone, and were asked how the stone came to be there: I might possibly answer, that, for anything I knew to the contrary, it had lain there forever: nor would it perhaps be very easy to show the absurdity of this answer. But suppose I had found a watch upon the ground, and it should be inquired how the watch happened to be in that place; I should hardly think of the answer I had before given.... There must have have existed, at some time and at some place or another, an artificer or artificers, who formed (the watch) for the purpose which we find it actually to answer; who comprehended its construction and designed its use....." (William Paley, Natural Theology)

Charles Darwin cast doubt on Paley's watch argument. It was known at the time that the blood supply for the retina comes out in front of the photoreceptors, and so each eye has a blind spot. This, and other supposed flaws observed in nature caused him to discount a Creator:

"Although I did not think much about the existence of a personal God until a considerably later period of my life, I will here give the vague conclusions to which I have been driven. The old argument of design in nature, as given by Paley, which formerly seemed to me so conclusive, fails now...."

The weakness of Darwin's argument can be seen if it is applied to the watch rather than the eye. Let's say the timepiece is found on a beach exactly as in Paley's illustration. It is taken to s self-proclaimed expert who, after some examination throws it out. He has seen a flaw. "The spring is weak!" He declares. This could not have been designed or made by anyone! It must be the result of random forces. This is nothing more than a collection of molecules known as 'watch'.

And this is supposed to be persuasive? What about all the other parts? The gears meshing perfectly with all the others, the tiny screws which hold the various parts together, the jewels strategically placed to reduce wear, the case being just the right size and depth, the glass front which allows the workings can be seen, markings on the face placed so they will be crossed by the hands in regular intervals; these intervals coincide with minutes and hours. There are more but I'm sure you get the point. The presence of flaws does not negate design or specific manufacture.

We know quite a bit more about the eye today than in Darwin's era. Every discovery shows with greater clarity how marvelous it is. We should also recognize that the 'flaws' Darwin suggested were only his opinion. Sure there is a blind spot in our eyes, but it is strategically placed to be in the overlapping field of the other eye. We never notice it. There may be a perfectly good explanation for the blind spot we do not yet understand. And considering the operating conditions under which the eye performs - it is an amazingly good design.

Paley's conclusion is an obervation that no skeptic has been able to refute effectively:

"Every indication of contrivance, every manifestation of design, which existed in the watch, exists in the works of nature; with the difference, on the side of nature, of being greater or more, and that in a degree which exceeds all computation."

How true.

Candidate of the Apocalypse

Episode 4: Year 2036 Mid October

A Long Awaited Party

School had been on hiatus for about a week now. Everyone was busy making final preparations. The crops had been harvested and stored even earlier than last year. But that was not the reason for the current activity. After the townspeople finished their last minute assignments they gathered along the westward road, waiting and talking excitedly. Around noon they heard the hooves. Voices followed. In a few minutes a parade of wagons drawn mostly by horses swept by to the shouts and applause of the townspeople. The Fall Fair had now begun.

Victorville was nestled in a valley of the San Gabriel Mountains about 50 miles from old Los Angeles. In the former days highway 15 ran through town, around the Mojave Desert and eventually to Las Vegas. The road had not disappeared, but it's once smooth pavement was cracked and broken. Teams of workers, when they could be spared from other duties, worked hard to clear and repair the damage.

Because of the mighty tectonic shifts at the end of the Great Darkness, Victorville was now one of the western most towns in California. It stood only a few miles from the new cost. From here the traveller turned either north or south. Today the road hosted a menagerie from near and far. Out of the south came a contingent from nearby Lucerne Valley. Citizens of eastward Barstow had started the day before, travelling late into the night, camping under the stars before setting out at the sun's first light. They arrived first. Later, a band from far off Bakersfield arrived. It had taken some three days for them to get here. They came up the northward road with heavily laden wagons drawn by four horses each. The various parades lasted all afternoon with stragglers continuing to arrive into the night.

As the Great Darkness came to an end, the survivors that crawled out from the wreckage realized they had to literally start over again. Now, some sixteen years later the survivors were enjoying a semblence of prosperity. Craftsmanship was coming into its own. The roads were used more often. Not by cars, mind you. The old rigs were all gone, and refineries had not been repaired as of yet. A few vehicles, those whose parts were not plundered for other use, were kept in decent repair against the day when fuel could be developed.

Festival Week. It was time to meet people and renew friendships struck from previous fairs, do a little bartering and gather news from far off places. Everything from crops to clothing was enthusiastically swapped. Victorville excelled in all manner of hand crafts. And their apple orchards were held in high regard by all.

Once the initial greetings and parties had subsided it was time for the various trades to meet with their counterparts to discuss and plan. The teacher was no different. He met with the others to talk about the art of teaching and exchange things of great value; books. It was he who originally found some books in an abandoned home and started the collection that is the school library. It was not very big. Most of the entries were of the romance and pulp fiction type, but scattered among them could be found some literary masterpieces as well as some college textbooks. He longed for some fresh material, expecially since most of his students had already read the entire library more than once.

He and the others were in general agreement about the curriculum. His was put into question only because he was discussing the conditions that led to The Great Darkness. They were concerned he might in some way be glorifying those days. Teacher shook his head. Why glorify something that led to the destruction of every nation on earth except one? No. His one and only aim was to inculcate in his students an awareness of the dangers so they could be avoided.

Evening fell and the growing darkness was filled with smoke and the smell of cooking food. Laughter, song and lively conversation continued far into the night.